Abstract: In this paper we present an explicit disk-based verification algorithm for Probabilistic Systems defining discrete time/finite state Markov Chains. Given a Markov Chain and an integer k (horizon), our algorithm checks whether the probability of reaching an error state in at most k steps is below a given threshold. We present an implementation of our algorithm within a suitable extension of the Mur$\varphi$ verifier. We call the resulting probabilistic model checker FHP-Mur$\varphi$ (Finite Horizon Probabilistic Mur$\varphi$). We present experimental results comparing FHP-Mur$\varphi$ with (a finite horizon subset of) PRISM, a state-of-the-art symbolic model checker for Markov Chains. Our experimental results show that FHP-Mur$\varphi$ can handle systems that are out of reach for PRISM, namely those involving arithmetic operations on the state variables (e.g. hybrid systems).

Abstract: Stress is a risk factor for impaired general, mental and reproductive health. The role of physiological and supraphysiological estradiol concentrations in stress perception and stress processing is less well understood. We therefore, conducted a prospective observational study to investigate the association between estradiol, stress perception and stress-related cognitive performance within serial measurements either during the natural menstrual cycle or during fertility treatment, where estradiol levels are strongly above the physiological level of a natural cycle and consequently, represent a good model to study dose-dependent effects of estradiol. Data from 44 women receiving in vitro fertilization at the Department of Reproductive Endocrinology in Zurich, Switzerland was compared to data from 88 women with measurements during their natural menstrual cycle. The german version of the Perceived Stress Questionnaire (PSQ) and the Cognitive Bias Test (CBT), in which cognitive performance is tested under time stress were used to evaluate subjective and functional aspects of stress. Estradiol levels were investigated at four different time points during the menstrual cycle and at two different time points during a fertility treatment. Cycle phase were associated with PSQ worry and cognitive bias in normally cycling women, but different phases of fertility treatment were not associated with subjectively perceived stress and stress-related cognitive bias. PSQ lack of joy and PSQ demands related to CBT in women receiving fertility treatment but not in women with a normal menstrual cycle. Only strong changes of the estradiol level during fertility treatment were weakly associated with CBT, but not with subjectively experienced stress. Our research emphasises the multidimensional character of stress and the necessity to adjust stress research to the complex nature of stress perception and processing. Infertility is associated with an increased psychological burden in patients. However, not all phases of the process to overcome infertility do significantly increase patient stress levels. Also, research on the psychological burden of infertility should consider that stress may vary during the different phases of fertility treatment.

Abstract: Advances in the use of neuroimaging in combination with A.I., and specifically the use of machine learning techniques, have led to the development of brain-reading technologies which, in the nearby future, could have many applications, such as lie detection, neuromarketing or brain-computer interfaces. Some of these could, in principle, also be used in forensic psychiatry. The application of these methods in forensic psychiatry could, for instance, be helpful to increase the accuracy of risk assessment and to identify possible interventions. This technique could be referred to as ‘A.I. neuroprediction,’ and involves identifying potential neurocognitive markers for the prediction of recidivism. However, the future implications of this technique and the role of neuroscience and A.I. in violence risk assessment remain to be established. In this paper, we review and analyze the literature concerning the use of brain-reading A.I. for neuroprediction of violence and rearrest to identify possibilities and challenges in the future use of these techniques in the fields of forensic psychiatry and criminal justice, considering legal implications and ethical issues. The analysis suggests that additional research is required on A.I. neuroprediction techniques, and there is still a great need to understand how they can be implemented in risk assessment in the field of forensic psychiatry. Besides the alluring potential of A.I. neuroprediction, we argue that its use in criminal justice and forensic psychiatry should be subjected to thorough harms/benefits analyses not only when these technologies will be fully available, but also while they are being researched and developed.

Abstract: New approaches to ovarian stimulation protocols, such as luteal start, random start or double stimulation, allow for flexibility in ovarian stimulation at different phases of the menstrual cycle. It has been proposed that the success of these methods is based on the continuous growth of multiple cohorts (“waves”) of follicles throughout the menstrual cycle which leads to the availability of ovarian follicles for ovarian controlled stimulation at several time points. Though several preliminary studies have been published, their scientific evidence has not been considered as being strong enough to integrate these results into routine clinical practice. This work aims at adding further scientific evidence about the efficiency of variable-start protocols and underpinning the theory of follicular waves by using mathematical modeling and numerical simulations. For this purpose, we have modified and coupled two previously published models, one describing the time course of hormones and one describing competitive follicular growth in a normal menstrual cycle. The coupled model is used to test ovarian stimulation protocols in silico. Simulation results show the occurrence of follicles in a wave-like manner during a normal menstrual cycle and qualitatively predict the outcome of ovarian stimulation initiated at different time points of the menstrual cycle.